Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an impending American-Russian presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump said he intended to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
- Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky departs Washington without results
The on-again, off-again summit is another development in the president's efforts to mediate an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.
However, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
According to Witkoff, the key to achieving a agreement was Israel's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump benefited from a long record of supporting Israel dating back to his initial presidency, including his choice to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - only to then back off in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.
The president often boasts about his skill to meet and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any closer to a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a summit in Alaska just as it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then promoted the potential meeting in Hungary.
The next day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he said.
However the Ukrainian leader later made note of the sequence of events.
"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has finally settled on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – something the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, Trump promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that pledge, admitting that ending the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when both parties desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.