‘The Situation is Dire’: War on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Supplies.

The shockwaves of a conflict being fought nearly a significant distance away are now reaching India's households.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran impede energy deliveries through the vital shipping lane, stocks of cooking gas are dwindling across India, forcing restaurants to cut menus, shorten hours and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is awash with video clips showing queues outside LPG distributors across Indian urban and rural areas as concerns over fuel supplies escalate. Businesses appear the worst hit: the sharpest squeeze is in commercial eateries.

"The state of affairs is alarming. Kitchen fuel simply isn't available," says a official of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most eateries run either on business-grade gas tanks or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the scarcities are now being experienced across the country. "Many restaurants have closed - some in northern India, many in the southern states. People are adopting traditional burners and electronic appliances to keep their operations going."

City-Specific Fallout

In a financial hub, local news say up to a significant portion of hotels and restaurants are already operating at reduced capacity as cylinder availability dry up. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some establishments say their fuel reserves have dwindled with minimal reserves. "We can only make coffee and no food items - it is truly dismal. Commerce will take a hit," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are rushing to adjust. "Menus are being curtailed, some are skipping midday meals and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are changing as supplies wax and wane. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a dynamic scenario."

Retailers note a increase in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are running out of them.

Authority's View

Yet, the government maintains there is no shortage.

India has more than 30 crore home fuel subscribers and spokespersons say stocks are being reallocated to households as geopolitical strain from the war in the Gulf affect energy markets.

About six out of ten of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about the vast majority of those consignments pass through the critical waterway, the vital passage now effectively closed by the conflict.

The oil ministry says that it instructed refineries to maximise LPG output for household consumption, enhancing domestic production by about a quarter. Commercial stock is being allocated for critical services such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"A degree of anxious stocking and accumulation has been triggered by false reports. The regular refill period for domestic LPG remains about two-and-a-half days," says a ministry representative.

Spreading Anxiety

Now the worry is moving beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of two-wheelers outside a petrol pump. "Concern is genuine," the description reads.

According to reports from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be premature.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its oil. Around 50% of its oil purchases - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the deficit could be partly made up by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a industry commentator.

Based on shipping data and credible market sources, increased Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, narrowing India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The real vulnerability is kitchen fuel, experts note.

India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - most of it through Hormuz.

Refineries can adjust processes to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only lift domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be partially mitigated through varied suppliers. Fuel availability remains largely sufficient. LPG availability is the critical issue to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the concern on the ground is not just tight supply but uneven distribution - and the usual problem of hoarding.

An industry representative claims exploitative practices.

"Retailers are exploiting the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be cushioned by worldwide shipping. But in restaurants across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next refill.